Remaining in Group 4 requires 40 points: CD Estepona's actual tally

CD Estepona has 20 points after 23 games. There are 11 games left to play. 33 points are up for grabs. From now on, staying up is no longer an emotional issue but a matter of calculation. Image: CD Estepona

Historical data does not lie In the last four seasons of Group 4, the 13th-placed team—the position that qualifies for the play-offs—finished with: • 38 points • 41 points • 40 points • 41 points

The range is between 38 and 41 points. It is not a written rule, but it is a solid trend. If we take 40 points as a reference, Estepona needs 20 more in 11 games. That is, a pace of close to two points per game. Demanding, but mathematically feasible.

The current pace is not enough... yet Before Manolo Sánchez arrived, the team had earned 7 points in 14 games. Since his arrival: 13 points in 9 games. The progress is evident. The current average (1.44 points per game) confirms a clear upward trend.

However, if that pace were to continue exactly until the end, the team would finish with around 36 points. Historically, that is not enough to secure a play-off spot. The improvement is real. But it needs continuity and a small additional leap. ## The schedule changes the picture The key is not just how many games are left. It's who they are against.

In the remaining 11 games, Estepona must face: • Salerm Puente Genil (13th – 29 points) • Xerez Deportivo (14th – 26 points, with one game in hand) • UD Melilla (15th – 25 points, with one game in hand)
• Linares Deportivo (12th – 30 points, with one game in hand) • Almería B (17th – 15 points) • Yeclano Deportivo (11th – 30 points) Most of the rivals involved in the relegation zone are still ahead in the schedule.

That makes staying up a matter of head-to-head matches. It's not just about picking up points. It's about closing the gap. In that context, the March 1 match against Salerm Puente Genil takes on an obvious strategic dimension. Winning it won't solve the season, but it will immediately change the pressure and adjust the gap. ## The competitive foundation is already in place

Beyond the numbers, there is a visible reality. The team is more compact. It concedes less. It manages the game better. In this category, staying up is rarely achieved through constant exchanges. It is achieved through solidity. And in that respect, Estepona has taken a clear step forward.

The gap is wide. The equation is clear. 12th – Linares Deportivo – 30 points (22 games) 13th – Salerm Puente Genil – 29 points (23 games) 16th – CD Estepona – 20 points (23 games)

Estepona is 9 points away from the playout and 10 from direct salvation, with the caveat that the 12th place team has a game in hand. The difference is significant. But not structural. If the goal is once again around 40 points, the team needs to add between 18 and 21 more.

That requires raising the average in this final stretch. Not a one-off feat. But sustained consistency. The narrative has changed in recent weeks. Now it's time for the arithmetic to change definitively. Because at this stage of the championship, feelings are important. But the table decides.